Chiefs 2022-2023 Record Prediction

May 13, 2022

We know where and when the Kansas City Chiefs will play each week. This, of course, means it’s time to set early preseason predictions.

I don’t know an NFL fan who doesn’t do this when the schedule is released. Most do it when the list of opponents is released, but it gets serious once you see the order of things.

The Chiefs start heavy on the road this year with three of their first four games away from Arrowhead. They’ll start in Arizona by playing the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, September 11. This will be an easy victory for the Chiefs. The Cardinals’ defense is weak, and DeAndre Hopkins will be serving a suspension. It is a great game for the Chiefs to work in their new roster. Chiefs win easily 38-20.

Week Two sees the Chiefs in Arrowhead for the first time against the Los Angeles Chargers in primetime Thursday night. A short week nearly always benefits the home team, which is a plus in the Chiefs’ favor. The Chargers will always Charger, but they are normally tough outs early in the season before their injuries start building up. This should be a good battle, but I don’t see the Chiefs losing their home opener in primetime; the Chiefs win in a close game 34-30.

In Week Three, the Chiefs are back on the road as they head to Indianapolis to face the Colts. This will be another easy win for the Chiefs. I know a lot of people are nervous about the Colts because they have a solid defense and a great running game. But a running game and great defense don’t beat a healthy Chiefs team; ask Baltimore. The score will likely be close, but the game will never be in doubt as the Chiefs win 30-23.

Tom Brady is waiting for the Chiefs as they had to Tampa Bay in a Week Four Sunday Night Game. Mahomes has faced off against Brady twice in the regular season and is 2-0 in those games. Brady is short a couple of weapons, including his favorite safety net in Rob Gronkowski. But Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are still a great one-two punch. Their defense is good, but it’s not the defense it was in 2020. It should be a great battle of the old GOAT against the new GOAT. It is a true toss-up game, but I’ll go with head over heart and give the Bucs the edge here, 30-27.

The NFL has given the Chiefs a gift coming off their first loss of the season. Week Five sees the Las Vegas Raiders coming to Arrowhead for Monday Night Football. The Raiders are getting hyped because of their acquisition of Davonte Adams and Chandler Jones. But let’s be real, they are still the Raiders, and Derek Carr is still Derek Carr. Andy Reid will call the dogs off early, and the game will be closer than it should, but the Raiders continue owning the division with a 33-27 win.

An easy Week Five is important as the Chiefs face their toughest game of the season in Week Six at home to play the Buffalo Bills. CBS made sure to lock this game in as their number one game of the entire season. It is a rematch of the greatest football game in NFL history from last season’s divisional-round matchup between these two. This will be the Bills’ Super Bowl, and I fully expect them to empty the kitchen sink on the Chiefs to win at all costs.

KC will play tough, and this game will likely come down to who has the ball last, but I’m going to give the paper championship to Buffalo. Buffalo wins 42-38 and brings out 100 tables for guys to jump through to celebrate their championship. I expect a different outcome when the rematch happens in January.

The next three games for the Chiefs are easy wins with a bye week in the middle. In Week Seven, the Chiefs make the trip to San Francisco to beat the 49ers. The 49ers do not have the roster to compete against the Chiefs, especially coming off a tough loss to Buffalo. If the Chiefs beat the Bills, this could be a possible trap game before the bye week, but probability matters more than possible here. The Chiefs win easily, 38-20.

The Chiefs host back-to-back home games against the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars following the Week Eight bye. Neither of these games deserves much explanation. Even their fans would have a hard time finding a way for those teams to beat the Chiefs. Yes, of course, anything is possible, but probability trumps possibility here once again. Both games are easy wins, and the team will head into Week 11 with a 7-2 record.

It’s good the Chiefs had some easy weeks because the next three weeks will be the most difficult three consecutive weeks any NFL team will face this season. It starts with a trip to LA against the Chargers. This game will come down to how many Charger players are injured at this point in the season. This will be a challenging game for KC if they can maintain their health.

If they are at their usual state of health, then no Joey Bosa, Derwin James, or Mike Williams will make it a much easier game for the Chiefs. I will go with the most likely scenario and say the Chargers will come into this game riddled with injuries. In a close game, the Chiefs win 34-28.

The Super Bowl stretch starts now as the Chiefs will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12 and Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13. In Week 12, the Rams will head to KC in what will be the game of the week in the NFL. You’ll see a lot of flashbacks to the amazing 2018 54-51 Rams defeat of the Chiefs. I have a feeling this game will be a bit more defensive, but it will still come down to the offenses.

While I love the Chiefs’ defensive changes, this is one of those games that I think their offensive coach outduels our defensive coach. They also have the defensive weapons to keep the Chiefs in reach. I think the Chiefs lose another tough one to the Rams, 31-24.

After losing to the Super Bowl champs, they’ll head on the road to Cincinnati to take on the Super Bowl loser. I do think the Bengals will come back to earth this season, and this will be a revenge game for the Chiefs. Following the two games they gave away to the Bengals last year, they will be ready to fight and do everything possible to win this game. I think the Bengals will be down after a disappointing season, and they won’t be able to match the Chiefs’ energy. The Chiefs will get their revenge in a big way here, reminding the Bengals who own the AFC. Chiefs win 42-24.

Following that three-game stretch, the Chiefs’ season ends with five easily winnable games. It starts in Week 14 in Denver against the Broncos. I know the Broncos got Russell Wilson, which is a good improvement over Drew Lock. But at this point in his career, this is not the Wilson of the Super Bowl years. He’s still very good, but he can’t compete with Mahomes anymore. Especially as late in the season as the Chiefs get the Broncos, Wilson will be beaten up and not at even the best he can do now. The Broncos’ losing streak against the Chiefs will continue. Andy will call the dogs off early, but the Chiefs will win 27-17.

In Week 15, the Chiefs will head to Houston for what is their second bye week. The Texans are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they will not compete against the Chiefs. Andy once again will call the dogs off early, but the Chiefs will still win easily 33-13.

The Chiefs head back to KC to take on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. Like the Texans, this game will be too easy to get into. Nobody in the NFL is scared of Lock, Jacob Eason, or Geno Smith. The Chiefs could treat this like a preseason game and still win. Since Andy will play the starters the whole game, the Chiefs will win easily 38-10.

As the Seahawks leave KC, their former QB Russell Wilson comes into town for a Week 17 matchup. Week 14 will repeat itself as the Chiefs will not lose their final home game of the season against the Denver Broncos. Denver will be busy figuring out what to do after another season missing the playoffs as the Chiefs look to rest guys heading for another deep playoff run. Chiefs win 30-20.

In Week 18, the Chiefs sit everyone in Las Vegas against the Raiders. Look out, casinos, because the Chiefs are coming to Vegas with nothing to play for and a bye week coming up as the one seed in the AFC. The Raiders will be looking to win another regular-season title by beating the Chiefs. With KC taking the week off and the Raiders going all out, the Raiders will win this game. They’ll brag and be all over Chiefs Kingdom social media groups bragging. Let them have their five minutes of fun as they start their eight-month-long vacation. Raiders win 33-20, and the Chiefs head into the playoffs as the number one seed in the AFC.

So that is my too early season-long prediction now that the schedule is out. I have the Chiefs going 13-4 and being the number one seed in the AFC. The Chiefs have a better roster this year than last year, even without Tyreek Hill, so it makes sense that they would have a better record. The Chiefs had a down year in 2021, while the rest of the league had their best years. I think they come back a bit while they are going forward a bit.


What is your prediction for the Chiefs’ regular-season record this year? Leave a comment down below to join the discussion.

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